Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5089 LGA 12:25 → CAE 14:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest YX 4619 LGA 20:34 → CAE 22:34 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5089 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 12:25	CAE 14:25	11%	4%	0.8%	70%
AA 4506 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:43	CAE 14:53	11%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 5057 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 19:56	CAE 22:01	14%	6%	0.9%	66%
YX 4619 Republic	LGA 20:34	CAE 22:34	15%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON