Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4602 LGA 09:58 → CHS 12:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4561 LGA 18:59 → CHS 21:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4602 Republic	LGA 09:58	CHS 12:16	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2013 Delta	LGA 08:22	CHS 10:27	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1404 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	CHS 14:47	11%	4%	0.8%	68%
YX 4561 Republic	LGA 18:59	CHS 21:11	11%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 5437 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:30	CHS 10:44	17%	7%	3.6%	83%
DL 4676 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:32	CHS 22:02	36%	22%	9.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON