Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4533 LGA 07:39 → CLE 09:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4722 LGA 20:29 → CLE 22:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4533 Republic	LGA 07:39	CLE 09:33	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
YX 5767 Republic	LGA 13:43	CLE 15:12	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 5773 Republic	LGA 10:43	CLE 12:21	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4514 Republic	LGA 17:33	CLE 19:25	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4722 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:29	CLE 22:23	9%	3%	0.7%	64%
DL 5190 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 07:59	CLE 09:47	16%	7%	4.5%	84%
DL 5045 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:25	CLE 12:14	20%	10%	3.9%	80%
DL 5242 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:40	CLE 15:34	24%	9%	4.6%	76%
DL 4974 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:30	CLE 22:35	33%	17%	13.7%	67%
DL 5194 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:14	CLE 19:19	34%	17%	6.1%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON