Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4604 LGA 07:09 → CMH 09:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4624 LGA 20:28 → CMH 22:07 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4604 Republic	LGA 07:09	CMH 09:01	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5686 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:30	CMH 09:19	5%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 5675 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:25	CMH 16:22	6%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 4462 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:32	CMH 17:29	6%	2%	0.6%	77%
AA 4684 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:08	CMH 15:04	7%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 5669 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:57	CMH 13:38	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 5681 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:55	CMH 22:03	8%	3%	0.7%	71%
DL 5671 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:30	CMH 19:42	8%	3%	0.7%	75%
YX 4624 Republic	LGA 20:28	CMH 22:07	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 4649 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:56	CMH 13:45	44%	18%	6.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON