Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 435 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 435 LGA 06:05 → DAL 08:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2845 LGA 16:39 → DAL 18:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 435 Southwest	LGA 06:05	DAL 08:51	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4178 Southwest	LGA 06:13	DAL 08:22	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2568 Southwest	LGA 09:45	DAL 12:13	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2397 Southwest	LGA 09:42	DAL 12:02	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2499 Southwest	LGA 12:30	DAL 15:10	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4425 Southwest	LGA 12:49	DAL 15:06	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2529 Southwest	LGA 16:56	DAL 19:36	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2452 Southwest	LGA 20:22	DAL 22:39	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 2845 Southwest	LGA 16:39	DAL 18:57	22%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON