Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 15 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5770 LGA 06:05 → DCA 07:23 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 5724 LGA 19:15 → DCA 20:59 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5770 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DCA 07:23	4%	1%	0.6%	89%
AA 4487 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:39	DCA 08:05	5%	1%	0.6%	85%
YX 4595 Republic	LGA 10:22	DCA 11:56	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4456 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:10	DCA 09:44	7%	2%	0.6%	36%
AA 4754 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:08	DCA 10:42	7%	2%	0.6%	61%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:50	DCA 10:15	7%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 5749 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:20	DCA 12:42	10%	2%	0.6%	78%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:49	DCA 15:16	10%	3%	0.7%	76%
YX 4691 Republic	LGA 15:39	DCA 17:05	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 5827 Republic	LGA 21:19	DCA 22:52	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:40	DCA 16:19	11%	4%	0.7%	61%
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:15	DCA 18:59	11%	5%	0.7%	62%
AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:16	DCA 18:47	12%	4%	0.7%	74%
AA 4473 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:53	DCA 22:16	13%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:15	DCA 20:59	13%	5%	0.7%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON