Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2401 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2401 LGA 07:04 → DEN 08:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 223 LGA 17:10 → DEN 19:16 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2401 Southwest	LGA 07:04	DEN 08:57	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:45	DEN 09:53	7%	1%	0.6%	84%
UA 716 United Flight history →	LGA 10:00	DEN 12:20	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 2200 United Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DEN 14:43	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 644 United	LGA 08:15	DEN 10:18	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2403 Southwest	LGA 11:10	DEN 13:08	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2028 United	LGA 15:28	DEN 18:04	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2046 United Flight history →	LGA 18:29	DEN 21:02	11%	3%	0.6%	71%
DL 710 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	DEN 21:35	11%	3%	0.7%	61%
UA 2834 United Flight history →	LGA 16:59	DEN 19:35	13%	3%	0.5%	60%
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:55	DEN 16:14	14%	2%	0.6%	71%
WN 2404 Southwest	LGA 20:58	DEN 22:48	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 216 Southwest	LGA 14:07	DEN 16:10	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 223 Southwest	LGA 17:10	DEN 19:16	18%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON