Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1597 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 1597 LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3423 LGA 20:31 → DFW 22:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1597 American Flight history →	LGA 06:30	DFW 09:23	4%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	DFW 09:35	5%	2%	0.7%	78%
AA 1987 American Flight history →	LGA 08:35	DFW 11:25	6%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:30	DFW 12:09	6%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 3289 American Flight history →	LGA 08:50	DFW 11:27	7%	3%	0.8%	77%
AA 2088 American Flight history →	LGA 11:03	DFW 13:27	8%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DFW 15:10	8%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 3113 American	LGA 10:00	DFW 12:33	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1609 American Flight history →	LGA 13:08	DFW 15:58	9%	4%	0.8%	71%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	LGA 13:59	DFW 17:04	10%	4%	0.8%	65%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	DFW 18:01	10%	4%	0.6%	65%
AA 2178 American	LGA 15:01	DFW 17:24	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1608 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	DFW 19:15	12%	5%	0.8%	63%
DL 352 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:55	DFW 22:02	14%	6%	0.7%	55%
AA 2092 American Flight history →	LGA 20:02	DFW 22:23	15%	6%	0.9%	59%
AA 2327 American Flight history →	LGA 17:19	DFW 19:37	16%	5%	0.8%	25%
AA 2238 American	LGA 18:57	DFW 21:22	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1043 American Flight history →	LGA 18:10	DFW 20:42	19%	6%	0.9%	61%
F9 3423 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 20:31	DFW 22:59	21%	8%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON