Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4904 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 18:09	DSM 19:56	15%	5%	0.7%	65%
AA 4395 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:29	DSM 20:51	19%	6%	0.6%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:59 → ATL 09:20DL 342	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	7h 35m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 09:11 → DSM 10:00DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	4h 55m	96%	89%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 10:58 → DSM 12:38AA 2962	7h 38m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LGA 14:29 → DTW 16:34DL 308	3h 14m Detroit	DTW 19:48 → DSM 20:39DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor	7h 10m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473	3h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 13:37 → DSM 14:52DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	7h 57m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 09:22 → DSM 10:37DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	5h 37m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	7h 53m	99%	87%
American Details →	LGA 10:30 → DFW 13:33AA 1806	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:53 → DSM 17:52AA 3930 · flown by Envoy	8h 22m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON