Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1231 LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 4598 LGA 20:44 → DTW 22:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1231 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DTW 07:55	6%	1%	0.6%	96%
YX 4355 Republic	LGA 06:46	DTW 08:46	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1823 Delta	LGA 07:33	DTW 09:21	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1078 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:25	DTW 11:24	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 308 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:29	DTW 16:34	10%	2%	0.6%	79%
AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:19	DTW 13:21	11%	2%	0.6%	73%
DL 1122 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:55	DTW 14:51	12%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 999 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	DTW 19:39	13%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 1014 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:30	DTW 22:51	14%	3%	0.7%	70%
AA 4414 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:28	DTW 18:27	15%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 4598 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:44	DTW 22:49	15%	4%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON