Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2465 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2465 LGA 07:20 → FLL 10:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2836 LGA 16:41 → FLL 19:36 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2465 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:20	FLL 10:22	8%	2%	0.7%	81%
B6 1471 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:35	FLL 10:40	9%	2%	0.8%	82%
AA 968 American	LGA 08:07	FLL 11:18	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
B6 271 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 08:08	FLL 11:12	11%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:55	FLL 13:54	12%	2%	0.7%	75%
DL 2308 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:29	FLL 22:52	18%	7%	1.3%	66%
B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 13:40	FLL 16:54	19%	5%	1.2%	61%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:30	FLL 19:56	22%	6%	1.2%	66%
B6 371 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 16:48	FLL 19:58	23%	9%	1.6%	52%
B6 571 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 20:50	FLL 23:59	23%	10%	1.6%	56%
AA 2836 American	LGA 16:41	FLL 19:36	28%	8%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON