Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5712 LGA 08:52 → GRR 11:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 5683 LGA 20:50 → GRR 22:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5712 Republic	LGA 08:52	GRR 11:03	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4775 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:28	GRR 11:39	6%	2%	0.6%	50%
YX 5683 Republic	LGA 20:50	GRR 22:58	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5104 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 14:45	GRR 17:07	28%	15%	5.1%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON