Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5781 LGA 08:16 → GSO 10:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4577 LGA 21:10 → GSO 23:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5781 Republic	LGA 08:16	GSO 10:22	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4574 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:29	GSO 16:13	6%	3%	0.7%	67%
AA 4577 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:10	GSO 23:13	8%	3%	0.8%	72%
DL 5125 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 07:30	GSO 09:20	17%	4%	5.8%	83%
DL 5107 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 16:15	GSO 18:22	31%	12%	7.7%	69%
DL 5118 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:35	GSO 22:51	36%	24%	22.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON