Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, YX 3585 at 15:11, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3585 LGA 15:11 → IAD 16:48 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3585 Republic	LGA 15:11	IAD 16:48	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 6242 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:29	IAD 11:55	18%	7%	4.3%	82%
UA 6244 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:28	IAD 20:55	31%	22%	14.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON