Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 575 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 575 LGA 05:56 → IAH 08:57 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1179 LGA 17:56 → IAH 20:52 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 575 United	LGA 05:56	IAH 08:57	5%	2%	0.3%	no record
UA 2371 United Flight history →	LGA 07:54	IAH 10:59	9%	2%	0.2%	93%
UA 344 United	LGA 12:49	IAH 15:58	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:05	IAH 09:49	14%	2%	0.2%	89%
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:50	IAH 13:32	17%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	17%	4%	0.6%	64%
UA 2133 United	LGA 20:23	IAH 23:22	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2930 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:50	IAH 16:44	18%	3%	0.6%	73%
UA 2617 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	IAH 13:06	18%	3%	0.2%	86%
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:29	IAH 21:44	19%	5%	0.6%	65%
UA 1794 United Flight history →	LGA 15:38	IAH 18:46	20%	4%	0.6%	62%
UA 1179 United	LGA 17:56	IAH 20:52	20%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON