Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4387 LGA 09:23 → IND 11:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4458 LGA 18:59 → IND 21:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4387 Republic	LGA 09:23	IND 11:35	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5646 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:43	IND 17:13	4%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 5642 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:45	IND 14:06	5%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 5635 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:42	IND 20:24	6%	3%	0.6%	74%
YX 4409 Republic	LGA 13:57	IND 16:00	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 5673 Republic	LGA 19:58	IND 22:16	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4427 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:11	IND 21:17	9%	3%	0.6%	66%
AA 4458 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	IND 21:29	9%	3%	0.7%	75%
DL 4883 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:15	IND 10:30	15%	2%	4.2%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON