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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 10h 23m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473 3h 12m Minneapolis MSP 13:05 → LAX 14:48DL 2974 9h 53m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 12m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:30 → DFW 12:09DL 856 3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:05 → LAX 17:25DL 521 10h 55m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 1h 26m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 8h 10m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:55 → DTW 14:51DL 1122 3h 29m Detroit DTW 18:20 → LAX 20:04DL 852 10h 09m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:45 → DEN 09:53DL 751 2h 36m Denver DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148 9h 11m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 9h 17m 99% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:59 → MIA 18:30DL 2300 47m Miami MIA 19:17 → LAX 21:49DL 450 9h 50m 74% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON