Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 572 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 572 LGA 07:30 → MCI 09:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 3528 LGA 19:58 → MCI 21:53 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 572 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:30	MCI 09:37	5%	2%	0.7%	82%
WN 2948 Southwest	LGA 09:01	MCI 11:08	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 2068 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCI 17:59	11%	4%	0.6%	60%
DL 563 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCI 22:21	13%	6%	0.7%	67%
WN 2951 Southwest	LGA 15:20	MCI 17:17	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3528 Southwest	LGA 19:58	MCI 21:53	15%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON