Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1164 at 07:00, 6%.

Safest bet that day DL 1164 LGA 07:00 → MCO 09:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 699 LGA 18:30 → MCO 21:19 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	6%	2%	2.1%	90%
AA 3038 American	LGA 07:40	MCO 10:30	8%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 902 American	LGA 08:17	MCO 11:07	9%	2%	1.2%	no record
DL 1511 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:19	MCO 10:58	10%	2%	1.6%	85%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:52	11%	3%	1.9%	89%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	15%	3%	2.1%	80%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:55	18%	4%	2.1%	65%
DL 2540 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCO 23:03	23%	9%	2.7%	59%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:59	MCO 21:15	25%	10%	2.7%	68%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCO 18:52	30%	9%	2.7%	62%
AA 1943 American Flight history →	LGA 14:56	MCO 17:39	33%	10%	2.1%	67%
B6 699 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 18:30	MCO 21:19	35%	15%	2.7%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON