Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2411 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 2411 LGA 06:06 → MDW 07:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4741 LGA 18:18 → MDW 19:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2411 Southwest	LGA 06:06	MDW 07:11	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2412 Southwest	LGA 07:36	MDW 08:53	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 487 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 11:26	MDW 12:35	12%	1%	0.8%	94%
WN 2414 Southwest	LGA 13:39	MDW 14:48	13%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2714 Southwest	LGA 21:35	MDW 22:41	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3058 Southwest	LGA 16:21	MDW 17:30	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4741 Southwest	LGA 18:18	MDW 19:25	20%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON