Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 13–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4807 LGA 12:02 → MEM 13:57 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 4696 LGA 20:06 → MEM 21:50 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4807 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:02	MEM 13:57	13%	2%	0.7%	78%
YX 5602 Republic	LGA 08:32	MEM 10:32	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5599 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:12	MEM 16:05	15%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 4903 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 08:48	MEM 10:28	17%	4%	0.5%	82%
DL 5606 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:43	MEM 21:32	18%	4%	0.7%	85%
YX 5605 Republic	LGA 19:54	MEM 21:47	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 4696 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:06	MEM 21:50	20%	4%	0.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON