Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1249 LGA 06:00 → MIA 09:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3088 LGA 18:46 → MIA 21:40 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1249 American Flight history →	LGA 06:00	MIA 09:15	3%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:10	MIA 10:19	6%	2%	0.8%	89%
AA 1530 American Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MIA 10:15	6%	2%	0.8%	88%
AA 970 American Flight history →	LGA 07:59	MIA 11:14	7%	2%	0.8%	86%
AA 2378 American	LGA 11:12	MIA 14:29	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3211 American Flight history →	LGA 09:28	MIA 12:45	11%	2%	0.8%	76%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:15	MIA 14:24	12%	3%	0.8%	77%
DL 2382 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MIA 23:22	20%	13%	2.2%	59%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:59	MIA 18:30	22%	9%	1.6%	63%
AA 845 American	LGA 19:11	MIA 22:13	24%	14%	2.1%	no record
AA 605 American Flight history →	LGA 13:11	MIA 16:08	24%	6%	1.2%	68%
DL 1620 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:50	MIA 21:21	25%	14%	1.9%	58%
AA 2525 American	LGA 15:39	MIA 18:38	27%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 3135 American Flight history →	LGA 17:00	MIA 19:55	30%	13%	2.3%	63%
AA 3088 American Flight history →	LGA 18:46	MIA 21:40	31%	14%	3.0%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON