Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5617 LGA 13:07 → MSN 14:45 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4338 LGA 18:41 → MSN 20:02 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5617 Republic	LGA 13:07	MSN 14:45	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
YX 5624 Republic	LGA 13:03	MSN 14:31	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5611 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:32	MSN 19:07	19%	6%	0.8%	55%
YX 4338 Republic	LGA 18:41	MSN 20:02	22%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON