Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2510 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 2510 LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2313 LGA 18:09 → MSP 19:58 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2510 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	MSP 07:53	3%	1%	0.6%	94%
DL 2473 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:55	MSP 09:53	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2409 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:10	MSP 13:10	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 2349 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:02	MSP 18:43	14%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 2313 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:09	MSP 19:58	15%	5%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON