Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2405 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2405 LGA 07:50 → MSY 10:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest WN 2799 LGA 18:44 → MSY 20:27 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2405 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:50	MSY 10:04	7%	2%	0.9%	68%
AA 1675 American	LGA 16:07	MSY 18:20	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 2799 Southwest	LGA 18:44	MSY 20:27	19%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON