Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4426 LGA 13:15 → OKC 16:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4526 LGA 18:59 → OKC 22:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4426 Republic	LGA 13:15	OKC 16:01	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4526 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	OKC 22:05	11%	5%	0.8%	66%
DL 5199 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 18:15	OKC 21:10	38%	18%	4.5%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LGA 08:10 → CLT 10:01AA 3279	47m Charlotte	CLT 10:48 → OKC 12:25AA 1626	5h 15m	91%	79%
American Details →	LGA 18:10 → DFW 20:42AA 1043	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33AA 1458	5h 23m	78%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON