Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5415 at 09:39 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 5415 LGA 09:39 → OMA 11:47 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 3204 LGA 18:04 → OMA 20:08 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5415 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:39	OMA 11:47	15%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 4900 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 20:02	OMA 22:02	17%	5%	0.7%	71%
DL 5102 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 13:51	OMA 16:00	18%	4%	0.6%	73%
WN 3204 Southwest	LGA 18:04	OMA 20:08	30%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON