Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via DFW, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597	3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:24 → ONT 13:48AA 2635	10h 18m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	58m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 38m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	LGA 13:00 → ATL 15:32DL 994	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → ONT 20:41DL 2891	10h 41m	100%	83%
American Details →	LGA 13:08 → DFW 15:58AA 1609	2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:54 → ONT 20:26AA 2147	10h 18m	97%	81%
American Details →	LGA 16:00 → DFW 19:15AA 1608	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → ONT 22:52AA 1695	9h 52m	97%	79%
United Details →	LGA 15:25 → ORD 17:20UA 1504	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658	10h 26m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON