Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 34 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1427 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1427 LGA 06:05 → ORD 07:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 598 LGA 18:31 → ORD 20:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1427 American	LGA 06:05	ORD 07:50	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 1263 American	LGA 06:55	ORD 08:41	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2389 United Flight history →	LGA 06:10	ORD 07:49	5%	1%	0.6%	89%
AA 392 American Flight history →	LGA 07:23	ORD 09:09	6%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 2985 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:45	ORD 10:23	7%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:30	ORD 09:06	8%	2%	0.7%	81%
AA 2057 American Flight history →	LGA 21:29	ORD 23:30	8%	3%	0.8%	55%
UA 1008 United	LGA 07:06	ORD 08:27	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2223 American Flight history →	LGA 09:16	ORD 10:36	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2251 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:46	ORD 09:05	8%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 2240 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:30	ORD 13:05	9%	2%	0.7%	74%
AA 855 American	LGA 10:37	ORD 12:04	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1166 United	LGA 08:13	ORD 09:41	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 477 United	LGA 09:06	ORD 10:33	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1310 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	ORD 11:57	10%	2%	0.6%	80%
AA 2841 American	LGA 21:37	ORD 23:12	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:45	ORD 16:30	11%	3%	0.6%	64%
DL 2806 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:45	ORD 22:36	11%	4%	0.7%	59%
AA 386 American	LGA 12:28	ORD 13:39	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1534 American	LGA 14:28	ORD 15:43	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 2015 United	LGA 11:18	ORD 12:43	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1504 United Flight history →	LGA 15:25	ORD 17:20	11%	3%	0.7%	61%
UA 1442 United	LGA 14:16	ORD 15:47	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2503 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ORD 19:10	13%	4%	0.7%	62%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:03	13%	3%	0.7%	66%
AA 396 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:08	13%	4%	0.8%	64%
DL 2513 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	ORD 20:56	14%	5%	0.7%	57%
UA 775 United	LGA 21:35	ORD 22:58	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1967 United Flight history →	LGA 13:22	ORD 14:48	16%	3%	0.6%	74%
UA 1156 United Flight history →	LGA 16:25	ORD 18:17	17%	5%	0.7%	53%
UA 1582 United Flight history →	LGA 19:32	ORD 21:05	17%	5%	0.6%	60%
AA 1795 American Flight history →	LGA 17:58	ORD 19:28	18%	5%	0.8%	38%
UA 2336 United	LGA 17:13	ORD 18:36	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 598 United Flight history →	LGA 18:31	ORD 20:05	22%	6%	0.7%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON