Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5786 LGA 08:02 → PIT 09:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 5787 LGA 18:53 → PIT 20:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5786 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:02	PIT 09:43	5%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:09	PIT 09:50	5%	2%	0.6%	83%
AA 4410 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:57	PIT 11:24	5%	2%	0.6%	69%
DL 5694 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:38	PIT 12:16	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 5722 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:20	PIT 23:09	6%	2%	0.7%	72%
YX 4538 Republic	LGA 12:51	PIT 14:23	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5715 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:10	PIT 14:47	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 4579 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:56	PIT 19:39	8%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 5787 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:53	PIT 20:32	9%	3%	0.7%	100%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON