Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 5156 at 09:45, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5156 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:45	PNS 11:56	14%	3%	1.8%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	6h 00m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	5h 51m	98%	85%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	2h 16m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → PNS 11:03AA 2476	6h 03m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	7h 04m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	7h 13m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → PNS 23:30DL 2807	7h 30m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → PNS 20:58DL 3021	6h 58m	97%	80%
American Details →	LGA 07:59 → MIA 11:14AA 970	2h 25m Miami	MIA 13:39 → PNS 14:37AA 3749 · flown by Envoy	7h 38m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON