Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5799 LGA 07:42 → RIC 09:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 5784 LGA 17:35 → RIC 19:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5799 Republic	LGA 07:42	RIC 09:18	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4457 Republic	LGA 08:52	RIC 10:29	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4429 Republic	LGA 10:58	RIC 12:25	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4673 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:44	RIC 19:24	9%	4%	0.7%	76%
YX 5791 Republic	LGA 20:43	RIC 22:19	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
YX 5785 Republic	LGA 15:16	RIC 16:50	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 5784 Republic	LGA 17:35	RIC 19:11	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5313 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:36	RIC 12:14	24%	8%	7.0%	76%
DL 5516 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:29	RIC 17:19	24%	8%	14.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON