Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5876 LGA 06:53 → SDF 09:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5636 LGA 18:20 → SDF 20:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5876 Republic	LGA 06:53	SDF 09:12	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5643 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:39	SDF 11:02	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 5637 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:05	SDF 13:27	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 5636 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:20	SDF 20:59	11%	5%	0.7%	69%
DL 4851 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 14:35	SDF 17:11	40%	18%	7.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON