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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Columbus, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:30 → CMH 09:19DL 5686 · flown by Republic 3h 27m Columbus CMH 12:46 → SFO 14:46DL 860 10h 16m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672 10h 52m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 9h 02m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:25 → CMH 16:22DL 5675 · flown by Republic 3h 56m Columbus CMH 20:18 → SFO 22:13DL 1655 10h 48m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → SFO 00:04 +1DL 656 11h 04m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → SFO 15:48DL 823 10h 48m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 13:00 → ATL 15:32DL 994 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:56DL 495 9h 56m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON