Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510	2h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383	9h 01m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	98%	89%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	1h 27m Chicago	ORD 09:16 → SJC 11:47UA 307	8h 37m	99%	89%
American Details →	LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597	2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834	10h 27m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	10h 49m	98%	88%
American Details →	LGA 13:59 → DFW 17:04AA 1056	3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:20 → SJC 22:13AA 364	11h 14m	98%	83%
United Details →	LGA 15:25 → ORD 17:20UA 1504	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481	10h 18m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON