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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via DFW, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:25 → SNA 13:59AA 2465 10h 29m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → LGA 08:35 → DFW 11:25AA 1987 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → SNA 14:38AA 1933 9h 03m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → LGA 08:50 → DFW 11:27AA 3289 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:36 → SNA 15:55AA 2659 10h 05m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 1h 30m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 00m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674 3h 01m Houston IAH 20:02 → SNA 21:49UA 326 10h 49m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → LGA 12:29 → DEN 14:43UA 2200 3h 09m Denver DEN 17:52 → SNA 19:33UA 1291 10h 04m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:48 → IAH 10:20UA 2371 2h 08m Houston IAH 12:28 → SNA 14:15UA 1533 9h 27m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → LGA 11:03 → DFW 13:27AA 2088 2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:24 → SNA 17:51AA 3223 9h 48m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON