tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 2412 at 10:28, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2412 Delta Flight history → LGA 10:28 SRQ 13:33 14% 4% 2.3% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 8h 45m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 14:56 → SRQ 16:34DL 3115 7h 34m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 3h 21m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 9h 02m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 09:37 → SRQ 13:49DL 478 7h 49m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:12 → SRQ 19:50DL 3109 7h 51m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 7h 52m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → DCA 07:30AA 4487 · flown by Republic 1h 31m Washington DCA 09:01 → SRQ 11:56AA 2584 5h 56m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:23 → MIA 21:24AA 3088 1h 30m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 36m 75% 54%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 11:26 → MDW 12:35WN 487 48m Chicago MDW 13:23 → SRQ 17:03WN 1642 5h 37m 51% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON