Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4498 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 4498 LGA 06:35 → STL 07:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1740 LGA 18:17 → STL 19:41 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4498 Southwest	LGA 06:35	STL 07:54	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 4340 Republic	LGA 07:08	STL 09:04	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1168 Southwest	LGA 12:02	STL 13:25	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 4449 Republic	LGA 13:56	STL 15:42	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4728 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	STL 20:55	11%	3%	0.7%	67%
WN 4432 Southwest	LGA 16:15	STL 17:40	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1740 Southwest	LGA 18:17	STL 19:41	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 4939 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 06:30	STL 08:08	11%	6%	2.9%	89%
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:00	STL 11:47	20%	7%	3.2%	80%
DL 4926 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 18:51	STL 20:46	30%	14%	9.5%	70%
DL 4905 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:59	STL 15:50	35%	15%	7.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON