Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4630 LGA 17:51 → TUL 20:17 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time Riskiest YX 4605 LGA 11:11 → TUL 13:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4630 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 17:51	TUL 20:17	12%	4%	0.7%	59%
AA 4341 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:29	TUL 22:08	12%	5%	0.7%	67%
YX 4605 Republic	LGA 11:11	TUL 13:47	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON