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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 6h 54m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → LGA 07:23 → ORD 09:09AA 392 3h 04m Chicago ORD 12:13 → TVC 14:29AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 7h 06m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 2h 58m Charlotte CLT 10:56 → TVC 13:12AA 5575 · flown by PSA 7h 12m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999 3h 20m Detroit DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424 7h 08m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 2h 28m Detroit DTW 10:23 → TVC 11:34DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:40 → ORD 08:26AA 462 3h 20m Chicago ORD 11:46 → TVC 14:04AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest 7h 24m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → LGA 13:25 → ORD 15:01UA 1967 3h 26m Chicago ORD 18:27 → TVC 20:41UA 677 7h 16m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → LGA 16:25 → ORD 18:17UA 1156 3h 17m Chicago ORD 21:34 → TVC 23:46UA 2071 7h 21m 95% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON