Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: one nonstop, YX 4432 at 10:51, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4432 LGA 10:51 → TYS 13:01 · 3% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 3% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 3% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4432 Republic	LGA 10:51	TYS 13:01	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4983 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:44	TYS 10:58	18%	4%	5.6%	82%
DL 5455 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 14:20	TYS 16:38	28%	13%	5.3%	72%
DL 5003 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 18:54	TYS 21:15	33%	20%	5.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON