Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:32 am at New York)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 10:45 → VPS 11:02DL 2048	6h 02m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	7h 00m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 23:06 → VPS 23:23DL 2745	8h 23m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	7h 29m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510	2h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462	8h 13m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170	7h 01m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 13:00 → ATL 15:32DL 994	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 42m	99%	87%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	3h 31m Charlotte	CLT 11:29 → VPS 12:11AA 5165 · flown by PSA	7h 11m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON