Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 4181 at 09:00, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4181 Southwest	LGB 09:00	BNA 14:49	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGB 13:00 → SLC 15:49DL 1116	2h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317	8h 05m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	LGB 11:10 → DEN 14:27WN 4966	2h 42m Denver	DEN 17:09 → BNA 20:33WN 3459	7h 23m	100%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON