Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4659 LGB 06:53 → DEN 10:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2429 LGB 13:42 → DEN 16:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4659 Southwest	LGB 06:53	DEN 10:16	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2554 Southwest	LGB 06:50	DEN 10:05	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1037 Southwest	LGB 09:10	DEN 12:25	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4966 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 11:10	DEN 14:27	8%	2%	0.5%	96%
WN 2429 Southwest	LGB 13:42	DEN 16:58	11%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON