Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Southwest via Denver, leaving 11:10, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 11:10 → DEN 14:27WN 4966	2h 56m Denver	DEN 17:23 → MCO 22:46WN 3659	8h 36m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	LGB 13:00 → SLC 15:49DL 1116	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55DL 2056	7h 55m	97%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON