Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2440 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2440 LGB 08:01 → PHX 09:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1362 LGB 15:45 → PHX 17:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2440 Southwest	LGB 08:01	PHX 09:20	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2586 Southwest	LGB 10:30	PHX 11:49	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 8509 Southwest	LGB 14:48	PHX 16:16	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 2442 Southwest	LGB 14:15	PHX 15:38	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1362 Southwest	LGB 15:45	PHX 17:04	18%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON