Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1169 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1169 LGB 07:01 → SLC 09:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 745 LGB 17:32 → SLC 20:23 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1169 Delta	LGB 07:01	SLC 09:56	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2101 Delta	LGB 07:02	SLC 09:50	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1116 Delta Flight history →	LGB 13:00	SLC 15:49	9%	3%	0.7%	87%
WN 745 Southwest	LGB 17:32	SLC 20:23	17%	5%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON