Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2581 LGB 07:06 → SMF 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 820 LGB 15:57 → SMF 17:24 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2581 Southwest	LGB 07:06	SMF 08:40	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4482 Southwest	LGB 07:11	SMF 08:36	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2345 Southwest	LGB 09:50	SMF 11:18	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2455 Southwest	LGB 17:46	SMF 19:35	11%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2720 Southwest	LGB 13:19	SMF 14:46	12%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 820 Southwest	LGB 15:57	SMF 17:24	13%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON