Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:32 pm at Lihue)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 1120 at 17:02, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 1120 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:02	KOA 17:55	19%	5%	0.8%	74%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 15:45 → HNL 16:22AS 1104	2h 24m Honolulu	HNL 18:46 → KOA 19:45AS 1188	4h 00m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 15:43 → HNL 16:35AS 1114	2h 17m Honolulu	HNL 18:52 → KOA 19:53AS 1168	4h 10m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:01 → HNL 17:53AS 1134	3h 14m Honolulu	HNL 21:07 → KOA 22:06AS 1198	5h 05m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	LIH 16:14 → HNL 17:06AS 1124	3h 57m Honolulu	HNL 21:03 → KOA 21:50AS 1178	5h 36m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON