Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:36 pm at Lihue); 5 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 17:01, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 17:01 → HNL 17:53AS 1134	3h 07m Honolulu	HNL 21:00 → OGG 21:51AS 1226	4h 50m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	LIH 15:45 → HNL 16:22AS 1104	3h 10m Honolulu	HNL 19:32 → OGG 20:25AS 1196	4h 40m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	LIH 16:14 → HNL 17:06AS 1124	2h 29m Honolulu	HNL 19:35 → OGG 20:26AS 1216	4h 12m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	LIH 15:43 → HNL 16:35AS 1114	1h 51m Honolulu	HNL 18:26 → OGG 19:19AS 1186	3h 36m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:48 → HNL 18:40AS 1144	2h 22m Honolulu	HNL 21:02 → OGG 21:55AS 1206	4h 07m	99%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON